Since Turkey’s controversial acquisition of the S-400 missile system from Russia, the narrative that the EU is facing a twin challenge from the East has been gaining currency in European capitals. Likewise, Russia considers Turkey a partner, even though their policies may be at odds, as in Syria and Libya. Days before, on 11 February, magistrates in the Russian town of Penza sentenced seven young left-wing activists to 6 to 18 years in prison. free” to “not free”. What also matters is the electoral culture. Erdoğan controls state resources, major parts of the media, and, most importantly, the Supreme Election Council. The EU has a high stake in this matter, and thus it needs to take a proactive stance in favour of pro-democracy forces. Turkey considers the Kurdish militia YPG, the leading element in the SDF, to be part of the Turkish Kurdish insurgency PKK. Such was the case with the sale of the S-400 to Turkey. Turkey found itself seeking loans or swap deals from the US and UK and hinted at freezing the deployment of the S-400 air defence system. Their core messages converge: first, that strong leadership is essential for bettering ordinary citizens’ lives, delivering economic growth, and ensuring stability; second, that the Motherland, whether Russia or Turkey, is under threat from “foreign” – read Western – and “domestic enemies” sowing disunity to prevent its rise in the international arena. Yet, putting these two countries into the same basket and formulating policies accordingly is problematic. Rather than deliver justice, the court’s mission appeared to be stamping out dissent. NAT 9th January 2021. An example of such scenario is the recent 10 month crisis following the shooting down of a Russian jet by Turkey which later on they reconciled. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrive for a news conference at the Kremlin, Moscow, March 5, 2020 (AP pool photo by Pavel Golovkin). Both espouse a vision of a multipolar world free of US hegemony. EU foreign policy, These differences bring into question the argument that Turkey and Russia constitute an autocratic bloc. The 2010 referendum diluted the judiciary’s autonomy. On 17 February 2020, a court in Istanbul acquitted prominent philanthropist Osman Kavala, who was accused of attempting to overthrow the Turkish government by organising the 2013 Gezi protests. However, Russia as well as Turkey have proven flexible in their day-to-day conducting of foreign policy. Turkey is not likely to consolidate as an autocratic system, even though such an outcome cannot be dismissed altogether. Their relationship is all about spheres of influence and balances of power, and their ambitions have brought them into conflict from North Africa to the Caspian, via the Levant and the Black Sea. Defying expectation… Suat Kınıklıoğlu, SWP Comment 2020/C 24, Turkey–Russia relations are currently fragile and transactional. This Comment reflects the authors’ views. Nevertheless, the EU must take a long-term view and recognise that the next few years are critical for Turkey’s ailing democracy. The idea that the two countries could be … COVID-19 has put on display its inefficiency and vulnerability. (3) See Igor Delanoë, ‘Russia extends Black Sea control’, Le Monde diplomatique, English edition, February 2019. Ankara is not coming into Moscow’s geopolitical orbit either. The Blue Stream pipeline, a section of which crosses the Black Sea, has supplied Russian gas to Turkey since 2003; and this January the smaller TurkStream began to supply southern and southeastern Europe via the Turkish port of Kıyıköy. First, you need to demonstrate empathy on issues that are sensitive and important to Turkish security. It was only in 1906 that the Tsarist Empire adopted a constitution and had its first legislative elections. But tensions between the two rose during the conflict, Russia accusing Turkey of deploying Syrian fighters to combat Armenian forces. terms after 2024. That is not the case in Russia, where only communists have similar reach, yet are co-opted by the Kremlin. AKP-friendly businesses gradually took ownership of major media. NAT 9th January 2021. Being neighbours, these countries have developed many common traits although plenty of differences still remain. SWP Comments are subject to internal peer review, fact-checking and copy-editing. Russia and Turkey seem to be in agreement to remove us from Ain Issa and its surrounding areas. For further information on our quality control procedures, please visit the SWP website: https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/about-swp/ quality-management-for-swp-publications/, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Ludwigkirchplatz 3–410719 BerlinTelephone +49 30 880 07-0Fax +49 30 880 07-100www.swp-berlin.orgswp@swp-berlin.org, Dimitar Bechev, Yet, Turkey is, and will remain, different from Russia. Putin and Erdoğan have managed. Russia adopted a new constitution that enhanced the role of the executive. Turkish-Russian joint center to be ready in 2 weeks Anadolu Agency 16:48 31-Dec-20. Politically, the two countries have a similar reading of world affairs, based on suspicion of and frustration with the West; both have an interest in maintaining a multipolar world order that helps them pursue their respective ambitions. the opposition, the structure of the economy, nist countries in Central and Eastern Europe, repressive. Plotting terrorist attacks during the 2018 presidential election and the World Cup. Vote rigging or removal of elected officials, e.g. In contrast to Russia, Turkish elections are contested and, as the 2019 local polls demonstrated, the opposition has a chance to win. Russia’s Rosatom is building Turkey’s first nuclear power station at Akkuyu, at a cost of $25bn. Putin and Erdoğan have turned into a diplomatic double act, with the recent agreement for a ceasefire in Idlib being the latest example. Constitutional changes in Turkey, in force since 2018, transferred all essential powers to President Erdoğan. And Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile batteries in 2017 shows that military-industrial cooperation is strong, greatly displeasing the US. The two countries have built a geoeconomic partnership based on natural gas and nuclear energy projects. Though, overall validity of the vote was only seriously, etc. Yet there appear to be striking parallels throughout the twentieth century in the ways Russians and Turks conceived of the relationship between religion and modernity. Unlike post-communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe as well as Turkey, elections and democratic institutions turned into a façade, though civil society and, to a lesser degree, media freedoms were not curtailed. mentary elections and even capture a majority of seats in the Grand National Assembly. Read more about: Turkey, Journalists. Yet, democratisation faltered at two critical junctures. NAT 9th January 2021. From an arbiter, he morphed into a quasi-monarchical figure. Turkey became exposed to Western liberal norms thanks to NATO and association with the European Economic Community. Expectations that he might cede power, step by step, to a successor have evaporated. Turkey, Russia maintain delicate balance in three hotspots. After winning Ankara and Istanbul, the united opposition may – theoretically – repeat its success at the next parliamentary elections and even capture a majority of seats in the Grand National Assembly. In the Turkish version of the events, Russia has essentially accepted, willy-nilly, Turkey as a co-equal in the South Caucasus, which is supposedly part of Moscow's "near abroad." It opened up its political system, abolishing one-party rule after the Second World War. The constitutional changes of2017 handed all power to Erdoğan, substantially downgrading the Grand National Assembly, the ultimate check on executive authority. Turkish-Russian joint center to be ready in two weeks: Aliyev BAKU- Anadolu Agency. Ankara’s assertive foreign policy is an increasing factor in broad geopolitical dispute. But the regime has applied the same tactics much more sparingly in western Turkey. Russian Federation, Strategic partnerships, Turkish-Russian joint center to be ready in two weeks: Aliyev Hurriyet Daily News 07:24 1-Jan-21. The report said Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey and Jordan were all violating a U.N. arms embargo on Libya by ferrying military equipment and supplies to … The Turkish electorate is conscious of its power to change governments through elections and is unwilling to relinquish that privilege. Turkey draws road map with Egypt, but will Cairo follow it? Faced with civic protests in 2011–2, the regime grew more repressive. Erdoğan, too, has been rallying the public behind the flag for years: holding mass rallies during the Mavi Marmara crisis, which aimed at breaking Israel’s embargo on Gaza in 2010, labelling Gezi Park protests a foreign conspiracy, blaming the US for the 2016 coup attempt, and intervening in Syria to fight the outlawed PKK. Still, military tutelage allowed for free and sufficiently fair elections, a robust media, and civil society. Turkey and Russia's deepening roles in Libya complicate peace efforts. In dealing with a difficult actor like Turkey, Russia has learned three things. Their trade partnership was worth $26.1bn in 2019. and centres on tourism and agriculture: 6.7 million Russians visited Turkey in 2019. and Turkey will be the world’s second largest importer of Russian agro-industrial products in 2020. Turkey's relationship with Russia is historically fraught with suspicion and friction. Ankara remains part of NATO and the EU’s Customs Union. Turkey and Russia are a like a couple, fighting and making peace time and again. Then, in the 1996 presidential elections, large-scale manipulation prevented the transfer of power to Gennady Zyuganov, the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. This time it was in the Caucasus, through the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh plateau. That has started to happen only recently in Russia. These two stories lay bare the unnerving similarities between Turkey and Russia. Kavala was promptly taken back into custody, this time on charges of espionage and links to the failed coup in 2016. But, at the same time, their willingness to use military force has seen them sideline EU and Nato powers in the principal conflicts shaping competition for power in the Mediterranean. The US says Russia's S … Presidents Putin and Erdoğan inspect a Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jet, August 2019. 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